Scenarios
Definition
Scenarios are a prospective and exploratory methodology used to construct coherent, plausible representations of alternative future states of a system. They integrate key drivers, uncertainties, and assumptions to explore how different combinations of factors may shape system trajectories. Scenarios are used to support strategic thinking, risk assessment, and decision-making under uncertainty, rather than to predict a single outcome.
Sources
- Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario planning: A tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Management Review, 36(2), 25–40.
- Van der Heijden, K. (2005). Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation. Wiley.
- Peterson, G. D., Cumming, G. S., & Carpenter, S. R. (2003). Scenario planning. Ecology and Society, 7(1).